Read any 10-K like an owner: owner earnings, intrinsic value, moat, management, and the price you pay.
Type a ticker or name and pick it. Quantifylt loads 10+ years of financials, the latest annual report and the share price for you.
Each link opens the SEC's own data in a new tab. There, press Ctrl+A then Ctrl+C (⌘ on a Mac), come back, and press Ctrl+V anywhere on this page. Financials and the live price load instantly. The filing index gives you a direct link to every 10-K the company has filed; open the latest, save it (Ctrl+S) and drop it here for the full read.
.htm works best, also .pdf, .txt or companyfacts.json). It merges with anything already loaded. Write down why before you act. Months from now, this is how you'll learn whether you were right for the right reasons, or just lucky.
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Five independent estimates on one line. Buffett buys only when the price sits well to the left of what the business is worth, so the green zone is your buy-below range.
Stock-based compensation is not added back. Buffett has argued that compensation paid in stock is still a cost of doing business.
Green: price is below the buy-below figure. Amber: price is below value but inside your margin of safety. Grey: price is above value.
A single intrinsic value pretends to know the future. Munger thought in probabilities, the way Fermat and Pascal did. This runs 10,000 possible futures, each with its own growth, discount rate, starting earnings and exit price, and shows how often buying today works out.
Buffett's 1977 test: a business you understand, with favorable long-term economics, run by able and honest people, at a sensible price. These measures are the numeric half of that test.
Berkshire's published acquisition criteria, from the letters of the 1980s onward.
Tick what you can prove from the filing. Buffett's own test: could a well-funded competitor with good managers take real share from this company? If yes, there is no moat.
Munger flew with a checklist the way a pilot does. Items marked auto are answered from the numbers; you can override any of them. The rest need your judgment, or the Partners' read can draft answers from the filing.
List the ways an owner could lose money over ten years. If you cannot name at least three, you do not understand the business yet.
Munger's 25 tendencies from "The Psychology of Human Misjudgment". Tick each once you've honestly checked yourself for it. Hover or tap a tendency for its antidote.
Munger's rule of thumb: when you see one cockroach in the kitchen, there are rarely only one. These checks look for accounting and disclosure patterns that should slow you down.
Claude reads the filing's business description, risk factors and MD&A with the computed numbers, and writes an owner's memo applying Buffett's and Munger's principles. It also drafts the moat, management and checklist answers for you to review.
No memo yet. Drop a 10-K, then ask for the read. The memo takes about a minute.
Circle of competence, moat, management and the inversion list appear here after the read.
Every figure the analysis uses. Click any number to correct it; everything recalculates. Figures shown in $ millions.
The whole business on one page: where the money goes, what management does with the cash, how fast owners' stake grows, how strong the balance sheet is, and where the value comes from. Hover any chart for exact figures.
LOADING MAP…
PRICES ARE SNAPSHOTS YOU REFRESH BY PASTING (PX); THEY DON'T STREAM. HOLIDAYS ARE CALCULATED BY RULE FOR THE US, CANADA, UK, EUROPE AND AUSTRALIA; OTHER MARKETS SHOW REGULAR HOURS ONLY. FILINGS COME STRAIGHT FROM THE SEC. MAPPED SUPPLY CHAINS ARE WELL-DOCUMENTED LINKS; SPLY+ ADDS AI-DRAFTED ONES, LABELED BY CONFIDENCE. HEADQUARTERS AS OF MID-2026. MAP DATA: NATURAL EARTH VIA WORLD-ATLAS (ISC).
FUNDAMENTALS: SEC XBRL "FRAMES" (EVERY US FILER, ONE LINE ITEM PER PASTE; CALENDAR-ALIGNED FISCAL YEARS). PRICES: YAHOO FINANCE SNAPSHOTS YOU PASTE; THEY DON'T STREAM. OWNER EARNINGS HERE = OPERATING CASH FLOW − CAPITAL SPENDING, A PROXY FOR BUFFETT'S DEFINITION. YOUR PORTFOLIO, WATCHLIST AND ALERTS STAY IN THIS BROWSER.
No single public list covers every small business, so the fastest route is: open these searches, select all the results, copy, and paste them below. Google Maps lists, Yelp pages, city business-licence open data (CSV) and OpenStreetMap exports (GeoJSON) all work.
For building a business, not just buying one. The math of a billion-dollar outcome, the frameworks serious operators and investors actually use, the founders Buffett bought from, proven business patterns, a unit-economics lab, and an idea generator tuned to you. No framework makes anyone a billionaire. They make you far less likely to build the wrong thing.
The thirteen lenses practitioners use most. Each tells you what to look for in the numbers and the one question to ask yourself.
Founders Berkshire bought from, as described in the shareholder letters. None started with much capital. All found a durable edge.
Learn to read financial statements and judge a business the way an owner does. Fifteen lessons in order, each applied to the company you have loaded, with a short quiz. Get all three questions right and the lesson is marked complete.
Build a company from nothing, one journal entry at a time, and watch all three statements move. Predict the effect before you click. Each entry shows what changed and why, and the checks prove the statements always tie.
Claude quizzes you one question at a time on the loaded company's real numbers, grades your answers and explains.
The Buffett Partnership letters, every Berkshire shareholder letter from 1977 to 2025, the Owner's Manual, and Munger's 2014 letter on the Berkshire system. Lessons, admitted mistakes and key moves are paraphrased. Read the originals at berkshirehathaway.com/letters.
Claude answers from this library and cites the letter years. Try: "What did they say about paying for acquisitions with stock?"
How Buffett's method evolved from Graham's cigar butts to Munger's wonderful businesses, drawn from the partnership letters and the Berkshire shareholder letters. Each principle names the check on this page that tests it. Principles are paraphrased; read the originals at berkshirehathaway.com/letters.
Ten of Buffett's real decisions, with the figures from his letters, what this tool would have said at the time, and what happened. Several show where numbers alone would have led you wrong.
.htm), and save the page. Drop that file here. It contains inline XBRL tags, so figures are read exactly.Companies you've saved, with the value and verdict at the time. Buffett kept a "too hard" pile; so can you.
Where policy stands, what the rule book says it should do, and what it does to the price of every asset you own.
Held at 3.50–3.75% through Jul 29 (a 9–3 vote), then +25 bp. Dashed = Fed median for year-end, shown as a Dec step.
Textbook rule: neutral rate + inflation + ½(inflation − 2) + ½·output gap. Move the sliders; inputs are yours to challenge.
Defaults: r* = 3.2% longer-run median − 2%; Okun's law gap = 2 × (u* − u), both my assumptions. Policy range midpoint used: 3.875%.
P/E is your assumption; I did not source the index's current forward multiple. Compared against the 10-yr yield above.
Money is no longer cheap. A 10-year yield above 5% resets what every cash flow is worth, and raises the bar for owning a business over a risk-free bond.
Two mandates are pulling apart: inflation near 3% versus a labor market that is soft but not breaking. The committee is leaning on inflation, and officials keep saying they will do what is needed.
Durable earnings, pricing power and clean balance sheets get paid more than promised growth. Leverage that looked harmless at 3% looks different at 5%.
A narrow, AI-led index plus rising yields is fragile: a rate shock hits the multiple on exactly the stocks carrying the index.
Rate cycles pass; compounding doesn't. Rebalance on discipline, not headlines, and keep dry powder for when fear reprices good businesses.
Written in the spirit of long-horizon investor letters. Not investment advice.
| Channel | Effect |
|---|---|
| Discount rate | Higher yields cut the present value of distant earnings: growth and long-duration stocks reprice most. |
| Funding costs | Floating-rate and refinancing-heavy firms (real estate, leveraged buyouts, small caps) feel it first. |
| Dollar | Firmer dollar trims overseas earnings and strains emerging markets (DXY near 102). |
| Banks | Wider margins help, but bond losses and credit stress hurt. |
| Housing and consumer | Mortgage and card rates bite; confidence is already at a 12-year low. |
| Outcome | Likely read-through |
|---|---|
| Hike to 4.00–4.25% | Dollar and front-end yields up; rate-sensitive sectors lag |
| Hold, hawkish | Bond relief; leadership broadens |
| Hold, done hiking | Yields and dollar ease; cyclicals and small caps catch up |
Scenario logic, not a forecast.
| Fri Oct 2 | Sept jobs report (consensus ~84k) |
| Sun Oct 4 | OPEC meeting |
| Mid-Oct | September CPI |
| Oct 27–28 | FOMC decision |
| Dec 8–9 | FOMC + projections |
Snapshot from web reports on Oct 1, 2026 (Schwab, Yahoo Finance, Bloomberg, NordFX; Fed releases via market sites). Approximate; verify at federalreserve.gov.
Scenario, duration and concentration analytics, with every input and assumption exposed.
Sensitivity per +100 bp yield / +10% oil / +5% dollar (percent price move, illustrative): Tech −7 / −.5 / −2 · Financials +1 / −.5 / −.5 · Cons. Disc. −6 / −2 / −1 · Comm. −5 / −.5 / −1.5 · Health −2 / −.3 / −1 · Industrials −4 / −1 / −1.5. Earnings shock passes through 1:1.
Price change ≈ −D·Δy + ½·C·Δy². Defaults (D = 7, C = 60) approximate a broad aggregate-bond index; a long Treasury has duration well above 15. Yields up 100 bp is the order of magnitude behind this quarter's bond losses.
From the 14 positive contributors in the etf.com table. Effective N = 1 ÷ Σ(share²): the number of equal-sized contributors that would give the same concentration. Lower means a more fragile return stream.
| Dataset | Source | As of | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fed target, Sep hike, projections | Market-site reports of FOMC release | Sep 16 | Medium: verify at federalreserve.gov |
| Hike odds, PCE, 10-yr, headlines | Yahoo Finance, Bloomberg, Schwab, NordFX | Oct 1 | Medium: intraday, moves daily |
| Sector returns & yields | ChartRow (SPDR ETF price returns) | Sep 30 close | High for ETFs, no dividends |
| Company contributions | etf.com contribution table | Earlier 2026 (index +5.7%) | Medium: stale; TXN omitted |
| Sector weights | Index reports (six sectors only) | 2026 | Medium |
| Sensitivities, regime, risk map | My judgment | Oct 1 | Low: illustrative, challenge them |
| Taylor rule, ERP, duration | Standard formulas, your inputs | Live | Exact maths, assumption-driven |
Not investment advice. Hosted version is a dated snapshot; use the downloaded copy for live feeds.
Which sectors lead, whether the sectors that lead the economy agree, and what the liquidity backdrop says.
| Bottom line | Leadership is narrow and AI/energy-driven. The inside-of-the-market prices (small caps, housing stocks, big-ticket stocks) are all weak and liquidity is tightening; auto sales are resilient and the LEI is flat-to-down. That reads as a slowdown warning, not a recession call. Earnings are the counter-argument. |
| What changed | 10-yr at 5.24% (highest since 2002), the Fed hiked in September, the dollar is at a 2026 high, and the consumer is at a 12-year confidence low. |
| Would change the view | Housing/discretionary/industrials turning up on a 3-month basis; yields falling back below ~4.7%; the Fed signalling it is done. |
| Key risk to this read | Q3 earnings are forecast +23%; if AI capex keeps delivering, tech can carry the index despite weak breadth. |
Off. Open the downloaded copy, click ⚙ KEY in the bottom bar, and paste a free key from finnhub.io (free sign-up). Quotes for the S&P, Russell, transports, housing and all 11 sectors then refresh every 90 seconds. Browsers on claude.ai block these calls, so it only works in the downloaded file.
Up-right = Leading (beating the index, still rising). Up-left = Fading. Down-right = Recovering. Down-left = Lagging. Rule is mine and mechanical.
As summarized by Seeking Alpha from a Bloomberg TV interview, Druckenmiller's leading indicator is the prices of the "inside of the stock market": the stocks that lead the economy, namely housing, autos and big-ticket durables, all rate-sensitive. Practitioners extend the same idea to small caps (Russell 2000) and transports/trucking as economy-sensitive prices. He has also cited the Conference Board LEI (2023) and stresses central-bank liquidity. Below I score the price signals first, then the confirming economic data. This is my mechanical application, not a current call from him.
Small caps: Russell 2000 vs S&P 500, total return, as of Sep 25 (Wespath). YTD: Russell +15.3%, S&P +14.1%. The quarter flipped: small caps led for 8 months, then lost ~9 pts to large caps in Q3. Russell 2000 closed 2,796.86 on Sep 30 (AP).
Housing stocks: ITB month-end price, Dec 2025 to Jul 2026 (digrin). Down ~11% from the Feb peak; July alone -8.9%. Aug–Sep month-ends not in my data. Transports: Dow Transports closed 19,604.51 on Oct 1 (19,572 on Sep 25, FRED), but I have no sourced YTD or 3M for it or for trucking stocks, so it is shown but not scored. If you meant the PHLX Housing Index (HGX), I have no 2026 quote for it; ITB and the NAHB index are my proxies.
| Signal | Data (sourced) |
|---|---|
| Housing | NAHB builder index fell to 32 in September, a one-year low (35 in Aug); 38% of builders cut prices (Trading Economics). ITB roughly flat YTD through July month-end ($95.44 vs $96.12 at end-2025, about −0.7%); builder margins sensitive to the 10-yr, now far above the 4.70% warning level in one analyst's note. |
| Big-ticket consumption | Cons. Disc. (XLY) worst sector YTD at −8.9%; 3M −7.2%. |
| Autos | Resilient. Cox: Sept SAAR ~16.3M (Aug 16.8M, Sept 2025 16.6M); full-year forecast raised to 16.1M from 15.8M. Edmunds: Q3 4.08M, −0.7% y/y, "primarily powered by the top half of a K-shaped economy." |
| Conference Board LEI | Aug 99.5, −0.1% m/m, first decline since March; Feb–Aug −0.1% (5 of 10 components up in Aug); consumer expectations a drag. Coincident index 114.9 (+0.1%), lagging 120.6 (+0.2%). |
| Liquidity | Fed hiked Sep 16; 10-yr 5.24%; DXY ~102: tightening. |
| Natera (NTRA) | 16.6% |
| Insmed (INSM) | 5.7% |
| TSMC (TSM) | 5.4% |
| iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) | 5.1% |
| Amazon (AMZN) | 4.6% |
~$5.2B across ~90 positions, filed Aug 14 for June 30. 13Fs are stale by a quarter and exclude shorts and non-US holdings. Tilt is health care and tech, not the rate-sensitive cyclicals.
| Item | As of | Quality |
|---|---|---|
| Sector returns | Sep 30 | ChartRow, ETF proxies |
| Contributions | Earlier 2026 | etf.com, stale |
| Russell, ITB, Dow Transports | Sep 25–Oct 1; ITB to Jul | Wespath, AP, digrin, FRED |
| LEI, NAHB, auto sales | Aug–Sep | Conference Board, Trading Economics, Cox, Edmunds |
| Fed, yields, news | Oct 1 | Market sites, approximate |
| Druckenmiller framework | 2018–2023 | Secondhand summary |
| 13F | Jun 30 | Aggregator, verify on SEC EDGAR |
Research tool, not investment advice.
Risk appetite and liquidity read from outside the stock market. Free, keyless data feeds.
| Bitcoin | $83,795 | Snapshot, Oct 1 morning. Open the downloaded copy for live prices, 24h/7d/30d moves and market caps for BTC, ETH, SOL, BNB, XRP. |
| Live only | Dollar index (DXY) was ~102, a 2026 high, on Oct 1. |
| Bitcoin | $83,795 |
| Gold | $4,204 |
| WTI crude (Nov) | $91.36 |
| VIX | 15.91 |
| 10-yr yield | 5.27% |
VIX near 16 while yields sit at 2002 highs says equity options are calm about a rate shock the bond market is not. Intraday values, will differ from the close.
Bitcoin trades as a liquidity and risk-appetite gauge: it tends to strain when real yields and the dollar rise and to run when liquidity is loose. Druckenmiller's Q2 13F held the iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) at about 5.1% of his book, so he is not ignoring it.
Do not treat any of this as a forecast; correlations shift. Fear & Greed is a sentiment index, not a valuation.
The cross-asset picture in one screen: growth, inflation, rates, dollar, oil.
| Asset | Level | What it is saying |
|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | ~7,696 · +11.8% YTD | Earnings strong, breadth narrow |
| 10-yr Treasury | 5.24% (peak ~5.3%) | Highest since 2002; worst bond quarter in decades |
| Fed funds | 3.75–4.00% | Tightening; one more hike in the median |
| Dollar (DXY) | ~102 | 2026 high on hike bets |
| Brent crude | ~$97–100 | Supply risk; feeds headline inflation |
| Nikkei | 68,840 (+3.1%) | Chip-led global risk appetite |
| Korea exports | +83.5% y/y (Sep) | AI hardware demand is real |
Qualitative placement by me: inflation high, growth slowing but positive.
| Fri Oct 2 | Sept payrolls: a weak print cools hike odds; a hot one revives them |
| Sun Oct 4 | OPEC meeting: oil supply and the inflation path |
| Mid-Oct | September CPI: the data the FOMC will lean on |
| Oct 27–28 | FOMC: hike or hold at 3.75–4.00% |
| Ongoing | US–Iran talks and the Strait of Hormuz |
| Risk | Transmission |
|---|---|
| Oil spike | Inflation up, consumer squeezed, Fed forced to stay hawkish |
| Yields past 5.3% | Multiple compression in the AI leaders carrying the index |
| Consumer crack | Discretionary, housing and credit; Cons. Disc. already -8.9% YTD |
| AI capex pause | Chips, memory and power names that drove the return |
| Policy error | Over-tightening into a slowing economy |
Qualitative framework, not probabilities or advice. Snapshot from web reports, Oct 1, 2026.
Who is producing the return, who is holding it back, and how fragile that is.
Source: ChartRow, SPDR sector ETFs as proxies (price return, no dividends). Weights shown only where I had a sourced figure (Tech 37.4, Financials 12.3, Cons. Disc. 11.3, Comm. 9.2, Health 9.0, Industrials 8.7). 7 of 11 sectors are up YTD; the median sector is +3.8%, so Technology (+36%) and Energy (+38%) are doing the work. Click a column to sort.
Source: etf.com, struck when the index was +5.7% YTD; rankings have likely shifted. Texas Instruments omitted (source figure looked mistyped).
Q3 earnings expected up about +23% on +11% revenue (Zacks); Alphabet, Micron and Nvidia are material to tech's growth. The risk is the multiple, not the earnings.
An educational tool, not investment advice. Buffett's thresholds were never a formula; the numeric cut-offs here are rules of thumb drawn from studies of his investments, and every estimate depends on your assumptions. Filing text you drop stays in your browser unless you ask Claude for a read, which sends excerpts to Claude on your own account.
Click any table header to sort. Session status follows the NYSE regular calendar hours and does not track holidays.